Moving with Macro trends

Setup

• Chart: weekly candles on Nifty, sector indices, or macro-sensitive stocks
• Overlay Weekly SMA 20/50 for baseline trend context
• Read the macro backdrop: RBI rate cycle direction, inflation trend, USD/INR, global CB stance
• Match positions to the dominant theme — e.g., long banks in a rate-cutting cycle, short IT during rupee strength

Entry

Enter only when the weekly chart confirms the macro thesis: weekly close above 20 SMA with 50 SMA sloping up (long) or below with 50 sloping down (short). Use a scaled entry over 2-3 weeks rather than one lump.

Exit

Exit on the reverse macro thesis playing out — RBI pivot, inflation surprise, election result. Or on a decisive close below the weekly 20 SMA for longs (above for shorts).

Stop-loss

Below the recent weekly swing low (long) or above the swing high (short). Positional stops are wide — set trade size accordingly using the 2% risk rule.

When it works

• Clear multi-month macro regime (cutting cycle, election-driven rally, etc.)
• Sector or index aligns with the theme cleanly
• Patience — positional trades often take 4-12 weeks to play out fully

When it fails

• Macro data surprises against the thesis (unexpected RBI action, US Fed shock)
• Trying to time exact tops/bottoms — positional is about riding the middle, not catching extremes
• Cutting winners too early or holding losers hoping macro reasserts

General trading rules that apply

Regardless of the specific setup, these apply to every strategy on this site:

• Never risk more than 2% of your account on a single trade
• Place a hard stop-loss before entering — no exceptions
• Journal every trade: setup, reason, outcome, one lesson
• After two consecutive losses, stop for the session
• Backtest and paper-trade for a month before deploying real capital